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NHL PROP INTELLIGENCE

High Five!

Verified NHL lines and matched player history.

13Validated NHL markets
13 NHL player markets have matched sportsbook lines and verified game history.
NHL research: Each card requires a real sportsbook line, an exactly matched player record, and at least three verified game results. Official NHL game logs are checked when StatsHawk history is unavailable. NHL result grading is still being built.
NHL READINESS

The High Five

13 normalized lines · 13 matched histories
#1 HIGH FIVE
Goals

Nazem Kadri

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
A
UNDER 0.5 GoalsProjection 0Model 83%
fanduel -360Market fair 73.3%Value +10.1 ptsModel EV +6.5%
L5 100%L10 100%L20 100%
RECENT HISTORYUNDER hit in 5 of last 5
Hit rate100%L5 avg0.0 GCurrent line0.5
0.511.52LINE 0.50@CF10-09UNDER0vsTML10-10UNDER0@DS10-14UNDER0vsDS10-15UNDER0vsPP10-17UNDER
Pick hit Pick missed Push Current line 3-game avg
Game-by-game results
DateOpponentResultLinePick
Oct 17HOME vs PP0 G · UNDER0.5✓ Hit
Oct 15HOME vs DS0 G · UNDER0.5✓ Hit
Oct 14AWAY @ DS0 G · UNDER0.5✓ Hit
Oct 10HOME vs TML0 G · UNDER0.5✓ Hit
Oct 9AWAY @ CF0 G · UNDER0.5✓ Hit

UNDER 0.5 with a 0 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

Supporting
  • ↑ Recent verified average: 0.00
Risks
  • ↓ NHL grading is not implemented. Confirm current player availability, line combinations and goalie starts before using a history-based projection.
#2 HIGH FIVE
Shots on Goal

Artturi Lehkonen

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
B
UNDER 1.5 Shots on GoalProjection 1.44Model 58%
fanduel +100Market fair 46.9%Value +11.4 ptsModel EV +16.7%
L5 80%L10 63%L20 63%
RECENT HISTORYUNDER hit in 4 of last 5
Hit rate80%L5 avg1.4 SOGCurrent line1.5
0.91.82.63.5LINE 1.51@CF10-09UNDER1vsTML10-10UNDER1@DS10-14UNDER1vsDS10-15UNDER3vsPP10-17OVER
Pick hit Pick missed Push Current line 3-game avg
Game-by-game results
DateOpponentResultLinePick
Oct 17HOME vs PP3 SOG · OVER1.5✕ Miss
Oct 15HOME vs DS1 SOG · UNDER1.5✓ Hit
Oct 14AWAY @ DS1 SOG · UNDER1.5✓ Hit
Oct 10HOME vs TML1 SOG · UNDER1.5✓ Hit
Oct 9AWAY @ CF1 SOG · UNDER1.5✓ Hit

UNDER 1.5 with a 1.44 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

Supporting
  • ↑ Recent verified average: 1.40
Risks
  • ↓ NHL grading is not implemented. Confirm current player availability, line combinations and goalie starts before using a history-based projection.
#3 HIGH FIVE
Goals

Cutter Gauthier

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
A
UNDER 0.5 GoalsProjection 0.37Model 70%
fanduel -250Market fair 66.7%Value +3.3 ptsModel EV -2.0%
L5 80%L10 83%L20 83%
RECENT HISTORYUNDER hit in 4 of last 5
Hit rate80%L5 avg0.4 GCurrent line0.5
0.61.31.92.5LINE 0.52vsFP10-05OVER0vsEO10-08UNDER0@WJ10-10UNDER0@CF10-11UNDER0vsBB10-17UNDER
Pick hit Pick missed Push Current line 3-game avg
Game-by-game results
DateOpponentResultLinePick
Oct 17HOME vs BB0 G · UNDER0.5✓ Hit
Oct 11AWAY @ CF0 G · UNDER0.5✓ Hit
Oct 10AWAY @ WJ0 G · UNDER0.5✓ Hit
Oct 8HOME vs EO0 G · UNDER0.5✓ Hit
Oct 5HOME vs FP2 G · OVER0.5✕ Miss

UNDER 0.5 with a 0.37 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

Supporting
  • ↑ Recent verified average: 0.40
Risks
  • ↓ NHL grading is not implemented. Confirm current player availability, line combinations and goalie starts before using a history-based projection.
#4 HIGH FIVE
Shots on Goal

Nathan MacKinnon

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
B
OVER 3.5 Shots on GoalProjection 4.9Model 58%
fanduel -130Market fair 53.1%Value +5.3 ptsModel EV +3.2%
L5 60%L10 63%L20 63%
RECENT HISTORYOVER hit in 3 of last 5
Hit rate60%L5 avg5.0 SOGCurrent line3.5
35811LINE 3.52@CF10-09UNDER8vsTML10-10OVER2@DS10-14UNDER4vsDS10-15OVER9vsPP10-17OVER
Pick hit Pick missed Push Current line 3-game avg
Game-by-game results
DateOpponentResultLinePick
Oct 17HOME vs PP9 SOG · OVER3.5✓ Hit
Oct 15HOME vs DS4 SOG · OVER3.5✓ Hit
Oct 14AWAY @ DS2 SOG · UNDER3.5✕ Miss
Oct 10HOME vs TML8 SOG · OVER3.5✓ Hit
Oct 9AWAY @ CF2 SOG · UNDER3.5✕ Miss

OVER 3.5 with a 4.9 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

Supporting
  • ↑ Recent verified average: 5.00
Risks
  • ↓ NHL grading is not implemented. Confirm current player availability, line combinations and goalie starts before using a history-based projection.
#5 HIGH FIVE
Goals

Alexis Lafreniere

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
C
OVER 0.5 GoalsProjection 0.76Model 43%
fanduel +175Market fair 34.0%Value +8.9 ptsModel EV +17.9%
L5 60%L10 40%L20 40%
RECENT HISTORYOVER hit in 3 of last 5
Hit rate60%L5 avg0.8 GCurrent line0.5
0.61.31.92.5LINE 0.51@WC10-09OVER1vsVC10-11OVER2vsTBL10-13OVER0@NJD10-15UNDER0@CBJ10-17UNDER
Pick hit Pick missed Push Current line 3-game avg
Game-by-game results
DateOpponentResultLinePick
Oct 17AWAY @ CBJ0 G · UNDER0.5✕ Miss
Oct 15AWAY @ NJD0 G · UNDER0.5✕ Miss
Oct 13HOME vs TBL2 G · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Oct 11HOME vs VC1 G · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Oct 9AWAY @ WC1 G · OVER0.5✓ Hit

OVER 0.5 with a 0.76 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

Supporting
  • ↑ Recent verified average: 0.80
Risks
  • ↓ NHL grading is not implemented. Confirm current player availability, line combinations and goalie starts before using a history-based projection.
MORE NHL PICKS

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NHL PROP
Goals

Artturi Lehkonen

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
C
OVER 0.5 GoalsProjection 0.66Model 50%
fanduel +175Market fair 34.0%Value +16.0 ptsModel EV +37.5%
L5 40%L10 50%L20 50%

OVER 0.5 with a 0.66 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

NHL PROP
Goals

Martin Necas

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
B+
UNDER 0.5 GoalsProjection 0.44Model 67%
fanduel -270Market fair 68.6%Value -2.0 ptsModel EV -8.6%
L5 80%L10 75%L20 75%

UNDER 0.5 with a 0.44 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

NHL PROP
Shots on Goal

Martin Necas

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
B
UNDER 2.5 Shots on GoalProjection 1.74Model 58%
fanduel -188Market fair 61.2%Value -2.9 ptsModel EV -10.6%
L5 100%L10 63%L20 63%

UNDER 2.5 with a 1.74 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

NHL PROP
Goals

Nathan MacKinnon

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
C
OVER 0.5 GoalsProjection 0.78Model 50%
fanduel -105Market fair 47.5%Value +2.5 ptsModel EV -2.4%
L5 60%L10 50%L20 50%

OVER 0.5 with a 0.78 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

NHL PROP
Goals

Leo Carlsson

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
B
UNDER 0.5 GoalsProjection 0.23Model 64%
fanduel -340Market fair 72.4%Value -8.8 ptsModel EV -17.6%
L5 80%L10 71%L20 71%

UNDER 0.5 with a 0.23 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

NHL PROP
Shots on Goal

Cale Makar

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
C
OVER 2.5 Shots on GoalProjection 2.53Model 45%
fanduel +100Market fair 46.9%Value -1.5 ptsModel EV -9.1%
L5 40%L10 43%L20 43%

OVER 2.5 with a 2.53 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

NHL PROP
Goals

Brock Nelson

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
B
UNDER 0.5 GoalsProjection 0.39Model 58%
fanduel -390Market fair 74.1%Value -15.8 ptsModel EV -26.7%
L5 60%L10 63%L20 63%

UNDER 0.5 with a 0.39 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

NHL PROP
Shots on Goal

Brock Nelson

Mon, Oct 19, 7:10 PM
C
OVER 1.5 Shots on GoalProjection 2.31Model 42%
fanduel -152Market fair 56.6%Value -14.9 ptsModel EV -30.9%
L5 60%L10 38%L20 38%

OVER 1.5 with a 2.31 baseline projection from matched NHL game history.

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