✋
PUBLISHED PERFORMANCEPerformance
Every graded pick, including the ones that lost. No cherry-picking, no hiding the drawdown.
2751Picks graded
Our published ROI is negative (-3.2%). We publish it anyway, because a tool that only shows its wins is selling, not informing. Treat these picks as research to check, never as a payout plan.
THE LEDGER
Where High Five actually stands
Record1502–1249
Hit rate54.6%
Units-89.41u
ROI-3.2%
MODEL LAB
2751 graded picksProof before promotion
Record1502-1249
Hit rate54.6%
Profit-89.41u
ROI-3.2%
Brier score0.253
Average CLV-0.2%
Model versions
| Model | Sport | Graded | Hit | Profit | ROI | Brier | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb-v0.3-matchup | MLB | 702 | 59.4% | -47.73u | -6.8% | 0.232 | -0.0% |
| nfl-v0.2-value | NFL | 658 | 49.4% | +3.81u | 0.6% | 0.272 | -0.3% |
| nfl-v0.4-context-learning | NFL | 515 | 48.5% | -32.16u | -6.2% | 0.275 | -0.2% |
| mlb-v0.4-context-learning | MLB | 354 | 58.2% | -20.08u | -5.7% | 0.236 | 0.0% |
| mlb-v0.2-value | MLB | 348 | 60.9% | -25.89u | -7.4% | 0.227 | -0.0% |
| nfl-v0.3-usage-matchup | NFL | 156 | 51.3% | +28.25u | 18.1% | 0.282 | -0.4% |
| nfl-v0.1-touchdown-poisson | NFL | 18Small sample — directional only | 66.7% | +4.39u | 24.4% | 0.230 | -0.5% |
By sport
| Sport | Model | Graded | Record | Hit | Profit | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | 702 | 417-285 | 59.4% | -47.73u | -0.0% |
| NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | 658 | 325-333 | 49.4% | +3.81u | -0.3% |
| NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | 515 | 250-265 | 48.5% | -32.16u | -0.2% |
| MLB | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | 354 | 206-148 | 58.2% | -20.08u | 0.0% |
| MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | 348 | 212-136 | 60.9% | -25.89u | -0.0% |
| NFL | nfl-v0.3-usage-matchup | 156 | 80-76 | 51.3% | +28.25u | -0.4% |
| NFL | nfl-v0.1-touchdown-poisson | 18 | 12-6 | 66.7% | +4.39u | -0.5% |
By market
| Market | Sport | Model | Graded | Hit | Profit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | 500 | 47.0% | -54.73u | 0.280 |
| Hits | MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | 420 | 62.1% | -19.98u | 0.235 |
| Receptions | NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | 397 | 44.1% | -71.28u | 0.286 |
| Hits | MLB | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | 234 | 64.5% | -2.22u | 0.223 |
| Hits | MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | 186 | 59.1% | -17.76u | 0.251 |
| Total Bases | MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | 121 | 47.9% | -14.62u | 0.243 |
| Pitcher Strikeouts | MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | 116 | 48.3% | -12.81u | 0.270 |
| Receiving Yards | NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | 114 | 56.1% | +54.07u | 0.241 |
| Receptions | NFL | nfl-v0.3-usage-matchup | 110 | 52.7% | +1.86u | 0.275 |
| Receiving Yards | NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | 88 | 59.1% | +26.38u | 0.246 |
| Total Bases | MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | 68 | 51.5% | -5.90u | 0.229 |
| Pitcher Strikeouts | MLB | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | 67 | 46.3% | -10.90u | 0.269 |
| Total Bases | MLB | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | 53 | 45.3% | -6.96u | 0.255 |
| Pitcher Strikeouts | MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | 49 | 51.0% | -1.91u | 0.261 |
| Home Runs | MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | 43 | 93.0% | -0.48u | 0.085 |
| Home Runs | MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | 43 | 93.0% | -0.48u | 0.090 |
| Receiving Yards | NFL | nfl-v0.3-usage-matchup | 31 | 58.1% | +33.90u | 0.248 |
| Passing Yards | NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | 23 | 56.5% | +1.50u | 0.280 |
| Passing Yards | NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | 15 | 80.0% | +7.68u | 0.217 |
| Rushing Yards | NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | 15 | 60.0% | +2.02u | 0.283 |
Grade and confidence
| Sport | Model | Grade | Band | Graded | Hit | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | A+ | 75%+ | 150 | 79.3% | +15.83u |
| NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | C | <55% | 135 | 54.1% | +5.37u |
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | C | <55% | 123 | 43.9% | -25.11u |
| NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | A+ | 75%+ | 122 | 55.7% | +4.94u |
| NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | C | <55% | 106 | 44.3% | -13.32u |
| NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | B- | 55–59% | 102 | 58.8% | +47.85u |
| NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | B+ | 60–64% | 97 | 45.4% | -15.04u |
| MLB | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | C | <55% | 97 | 49.5% | -11.39u |
| MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | A+ | 75%+ | 97 | 83.5% | +9.71u |
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | B+ | 60–64% | 81 | 56.8% | -7.60u |
| NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | A+ | 75%+ | 73 | 60.3% | +6.70u |
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | A- | 65–69% | 69 | 55.1% | -9.09u |
| NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | A- | 65–69% | 66 | 56.1% | +2.82u |
| NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | B+ | 60–64% | 64 | 28.1% | -29.49u |
| NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | B- | 55–59% | 58 | 46.6% | -8.71u |
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | B- | 55–59% | 54 | 61.1% | +4.85u |
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | A+ | 70–74% | 53 | 66.0% | -0.87u |
| MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | C | <55% | 50 | 46.0% | -7.98u |
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | B | 55–59% | 44 | 52.3% | -8.05u |
| MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | B+ | 60–64% | 43 | 60.5% | -1.68u |
Sport-specific calibration
| Sport | Model | Band | Picks | Predicted | Actual | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | 50-59% | 97 | 54.5% | 49.5% | 0.254 |
| MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | 60-69% | 121 | 64.5% | 52.9% | 0.264 |
| MLB | mlb-v0.2-value | 70-79% | 130 | 76.4% | 76.9% | 0.173 |
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | 50-59% | 222 | 54.3% | 49.5% | 0.250 |
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | 60-69% | 243 | 64.7% | 53.9% | 0.260 |
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | 70-79% | 142 | 74.4% | 70.4% | 0.206 |
| MLB | mlb-v0.3-matchup | 80-89% | 95 | 80.0% | 80.0% | 0.160 |
| MLB | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | 50-59% | 154 | 53.6% | 49.4% | 0.250 |
| MLB | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | 60-69% | 117 | 64.3% | 59.8% | 0.241 |
| MLB | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | 70-79% | 80 | 74.1% | 72.5% | 0.201 |
| MLB | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | 80-89% | 3 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 0.240 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.1-touchdown-poisson | 50-59% | 11 | 52.9% | 72.7% | 0.224 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.1-touchdown-poisson | 60-69% | 3 | 62.7% | 33.3% | 0.313 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.1-touchdown-poisson | 70-79% | 4 | 77.0% | 75.0% | 0.183 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | 50-59% | 250 | 54.9% | 50.8% | 0.249 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | 60-69% | 244 | 64.0% | 45.1% | 0.282 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.2-value | 70-79% | 164 | 75.2% | 53.7% | 0.293 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.3-usage-matchup | 50-59% | 60 | 55.3% | 55.0% | 0.246 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.3-usage-matchup | 60-69% | 59 | 64.0% | 55.9% | 0.252 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.3-usage-matchup | 70-79% | 37 | 76.0% | 37.8% | 0.388 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | 50-59% | 222 | 53.6% | 50.9% | 0.253 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | 60-69% | 161 | 64.0% | 39.8% | 0.294 |
| NFL | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | 70-79% | 132 | 75.5% | 55.3% | 0.288 |
Recent High Five results
| Sport | Player | Market | Pick | Model | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Chandler Simpson | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | pending | — |
| MLB | Junior Caminero | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | pending | — |
| MLB | Parker Messick | Pitcher Outs | OVER 15.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | pending | — |
| MLB | Jo Adell | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | pending | — |
| MLB | Brayan Rocchio | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | pending | — |
| NFL | Dalton Schultz | Receiving Yards | OVER 30.500 | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | win | +0.87u |
| MLB | Chase DeLauter | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | pending | — |
| MLB | Chandler Simpson | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | pending | — |
| MLB | Junior Caminero | RBIs | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | pending | — |
| MLB | Brayan Rocchio | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | pending | — |
| MLB | Jo Adell | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | pending | — |
| NFL | Parker Washington | Receiving Yards | OVER 63.500 | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | win | +0.88u |
| MLB | Chase DeLauter | Runs | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | failed | — |
| MLB | Jose Ramirez | Runs | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | failed | — |
| MLB | Junior Caminero | RBIs | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | failed | — |
| MLB | Jo Adell | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | failed | — |
| MLB | Brayan Rocchio | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | failed | — |
| NFL | Emanuel Wilson | Receiving Yards | OVER 9.500 | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | loss | -1.00u |
| NFL | George Holani | Receiving Yards | OVER 10.500 | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | loss | -1.00u |
| NFL | Courtland Sutton | Receiving Yards | UNDER 31.500 | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | win | +0.92u |
| NFL | Bo Nix | Passing Yards | UNDER 198.500 | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | win | +0.89u |
| NFL | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Receiving Yards | OVER 92.500 | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | win | +0.88u |
| MLB | Andy Pages | RBIs | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | failed | — |
| MLB | Jake Bauers | Runs | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | failed | — |
| MLB | Jackson Chourio | Runs | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | failed | — |
| MLB | William Contreras | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | failed | — |
| MLB | Brice Turang | Hits | OVER 0.500 | mlb-v0.4-context-learning | failed | — |
| NFL | Courtland Sutton | Receiving Yards | UNDER 32.500 | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | win | +0.88u |
| NFL | RJ Harvey | Receiving Yards | OVER 21.500 | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | win | +0.93u |
| NFL | Bo Nix | Passing Yards | UNDER 199.500 | nfl-v0.4-context-learning | win | +0.89u |
HOW TO READ THIS
What the numbers mean
Hit rate is the share of graded picks that won, pushes excluded. Units assumes one unit risked per pick at the price we published. ROI is units returned divided by units risked — a negative ROI means the published card lost money at the stated prices. Brier score and closing-line value measure calibration and whether the market moved with us; both are reported even when they flatter the model. We never re-price a pick after the fact, and a game abandoned or voided is not counted as a win.