✋
MLB PROP INTELLIGENCE

High Five!

Five strong props. Verified numbers. Clear reasons.

5Top plays
HIGH FIVE CHAT

Research the slate

● Grounded in app data
Ask for five MLB props, safer alternatives, plus-money plays, or why High Five likes a specific pick.
PARLAY LAB

Build from model-ranked props

TODAY'S CARD

The High Five

Live · SharpAPI
#1 HIGH FIVE
Hits

Jo Adell

A+
OVER 0.5 HitsProjection 0.98Model 74%
draftkings -145Market fair 55.3%Value +19.2 ptsModel EV +25.8%
L5 60%L10 80%L20 75%
RECENT HISTORYOVER hit in 3 of last 5
Hit rate60%L5 avg0.8 HCurrent line0.5
0.61.31.92.5LINE 0.50@BOS09-23UNDER0@BOS09-24UNDER1@KC09-25OVER1@KC09-26OVER2@KC09-27OVER
Pick hit Pick missed Push Current line 3-game avg
Game-by-game results
DateOpponentResultLinePick
Sep 27AWAY @ KC2 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 26AWAY @ KC1 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 25AWAY @ KC1 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 24AWAY @ BOS0 H · UNDER0.5✕ Miss
Sep 23AWAY @ BOS0 H · UNDER0.5✕ Miss

Jo Adell projects for 1.0 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 74% OVER probability.

Supporting
  • ↑ 80% hit rate over the last 10 tracked games
  • ↑ Projection is 0.5 above the line
  • ↑ Model edge +19.2 pts vs no-vig market
Risks
  • ↓ Recent form has cooled: 60% L5 vs 80% L10
  • ↓ Graded-pick calibration (688 results) trims 3.0 percentage points
Why High Five likes it
  • Away split: Location split adjusts projection by 5.4%.
  • Lineup risk: Lineup is unconfirmed, so confidence is reduced.
#2 HIGH FIVE
Hits

Brayan Rocchio

A
OVER 0.5 HitsProjection 0.96Model 69%
draftkings -122Market fair 51.3%Value +18.1 ptsModel EV +26.2%
L5 80%L10 80%L20 75%
RECENT HISTORYOVER hit in 4 of last 5
Hit rate80%L5 avg1.2 HCurrent line0.5
0.91.82.63.5LINE 0.51@BOS09-22OVER1@BOS09-23OVER0@BOS09-24UNDER1@KC09-25OVER3@KC09-26OVER
Pick hit Pick missed Push Current line 3-game avg
Game-by-game results
DateOpponentResultLinePick
Sep 26AWAY @ KC3 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 25AWAY @ KC1 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 24AWAY @ BOS0 H · UNDER0.5✕ Miss
Sep 23AWAY @ BOS1 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 22AWAY @ BOS1 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit

Brayan Rocchio projects for 1.0 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 69% OVER probability.

Supporting
  • ↑ 80% hit rate over the last 10 tracked games
  • ↑ Projection is 0.5 above the line
  • ↑ Model edge +18.1 pts vs no-vig market
Risks
  • ↓ Graded-pick calibration (688 results) trims 3.0 percentage points
Why High Five likes it
  • Away split: Location split adjusts projection by -7.5%.
  • Lineup risk: Lineup is unconfirmed, so confidence is reduced.
#3 HIGH FIVE
Runs

Chase DeLauter

C
OVER 0.5 RunsProjection 0.54Model 50%
draftkings +191Market fair 32.0%Value +18.0 ptsModel EV +45.5%
L5 60%L10 40%L20 35%
RECENT HISTORYOVER hit in 3 of last 5
Hit rate60%L5 avg0.6 RCurrent line0.5
0.511.52LINE 0.51@BOS09-22OVER0@BOS09-23UNDER0@BOS09-24UNDER1@KC09-25OVER1@KC09-26OVER
Pick hit Pick missed Push Current line 3-game avg
Game-by-game results
DateOpponentResultLinePick
Sep 26AWAY @ KC1 R · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 25AWAY @ KC1 R · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 24AWAY @ BOS0 R · UNDER0.5✕ Miss
Sep 23AWAY @ BOS0 R · UNDER0.5✕ Miss
Sep 22AWAY @ BOS1 R · OVER0.5✓ Hit

Chase DeLauter projects for 0.5 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 50% OVER probability.

Supporting
  • ↑ Projection is 0.0 above the line
  • ↑ Model edge +18.0 pts vs no-vig market
Risks
  • ↓ 40% hit rate over the last 10 tracked games
  • ↓ Graded-pick calibration (1404 results) trims 0.6 percentage points
Why High Five likes it
  • Away split: Location split adjusts projection by 3.9%.
  • Lineup risk: Lineup is unconfirmed, so confidence is reduced.
#4 HIGH FIVE
RBIs

Junior Caminero

C
OVER 0.5 RBIsProjection 0.56Model 50%
draftkings +166Market fair 34.9%Value +15.1 ptsModel EV +33.0%
L5 40%L10 30%L20 35%
RECENT HISTORYOVER hit in 2 of last 5
Hit rate40%L5 avg0.8 RBICurrent line0.5
0.61.31.92.5LINE 0.50@NYY09-23UNDER2@NYY09-24OVER0@PHI09-25UNDER2@PHI09-26OVER0@PHI09-27UNDER
Pick hit Pick missed Push Current line 3-game avg
Game-by-game results
DateOpponentResultLinePick
Sep 27AWAY @ PHI0 RBI · UNDER0.5✕ Miss
Sep 26AWAY @ PHI2 RBI · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 25AWAY @ PHI0 RBI · UNDER0.5✕ Miss
Sep 24AWAY @ NYY2 RBI · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 23AWAY @ NYY0 RBI · UNDER0.5✕ Miss

Junior Caminero projects for 0.6 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 50% OVER probability.

Supporting
  • ↑ Projection is 0.1 above the line
  • ↑ Model edge +15.1 pts vs no-vig market
Risks
  • ↓ 30% hit rate over the last 10 tracked games
  • ↓ Graded-pick calibration (1404 results) trims 0.6 percentage points
Why High Five likes it
  • Away split: Location split adjusts projection by -6.9%.
  • Lineup risk: Lineup is unconfirmed, so confidence is reduced.
#5 HIGH FIVE
Hits

Chandler Simpson

A
OVER 0.5 HitsProjection 1.07Model 72%
draftkings -229Market fair 65.2%Value +6.6 ptsModel EV +3.1%
L5 80%L10 80%L20 70%
RECENT HISTORYOVER hit in 4 of last 5
Hit rate80%L5 avg0.8 HCurrent line0.5
0.511.52LINE 0.51vsBOS09-20OVER1@NYY09-22OVER1@NYY09-22OVER1@NYY09-24OVER0@PHI09-25UNDER
Pick hit Pick missed Push Current line 3-game avg
Game-by-game results
DateOpponentResultLinePick
Sep 25AWAY @ PHI0 H · UNDER0.5✕ Miss
Sep 24AWAY @ NYY1 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 22AWAY @ NYY1 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 22AWAY @ NYY1 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit
Sep 20HOME vs BOS1 H · OVER0.5✓ Hit

Chandler Simpson projects for 1.1 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 72% OVER probability.

Supporting
  • ↑ 80% hit rate over the last 10 tracked games
  • ↑ Projection is 0.6 above the line
  • ↑ Model edge +6.6 pts vs no-vig market
Risks
  • ↓ Graded-pick calibration (688 results) trims 3.0 percentage points
Why High Five likes it
  • Away split: Location split adjusts projection by 1.9%.
  • Lineup risk: Lineup is unconfirmed, so confidence is reduced.
MORE PICKS

MLB prop board

MLB PROP
Hits

Chandler Simpson

A
OVER 0.5 HitsProjection 1.07Model 72%
draftkings -229Market fair 65.2%Value +6.6 ptsModel EV +3.1%
L5 80%L10 80%L20 70%

Chandler Simpson projects for 1.1 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 72% OVER probability.

MLB PROP
Hits

Junior Caminero

A
OVER 0.5 HitsProjection 0.98Model 70%
draftkings -207Market fair 63.1%Value +6.8 ptsModel EV +3.7%
L5 60%L10 70%L20 70%

Junior Caminero projects for 1.0 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 70% OVER probability.

MLB PROP
Hits

Jonathan Aranda

A-
OVER 0.5 HitsProjection 0.78Model 67%
draftkings -169Market fair 58.8%Value +7.8 ptsModel EV +6.0%
L5 60%L10 70%L20 70%

Jonathan Aranda projects for 0.8 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 67% OVER probability.

MLB PROP
Hits

Chase DeLauter

A-
OVER 0.5 HitsProjection 0.89Model 67%
draftkings -186Market fair 60.9%Value +6.2 ptsModel EV +3.1%
L5 60%L10 70%L20 60%

Chase DeLauter projects for 0.9 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 67% OVER probability.

MLB PROP
Hits

Jose Ramirez

A-
OVER 0.5 HitsProjection 0.9Model 65%
draftkings -173Market fair 59.3%Value +5.4 ptsModel EV +2.1%
L5 60%L10 70%L20 60%

Jose Ramirez projects for 0.9 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 65% OVER probability.

MLB PROP
Runs

Junior Caminero

C
OVER 0.5 RunsProjection 0.67Model 51%
draftkings +120Market fair 42.1%Value +9.1 ptsModel EV +12.8%
L5 40%L10 40%L20 50%

Junior Caminero projects for 0.7 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 51% OVER probability.

MLB PROP
Hits

Steven Kwan

A-
OVER 0.5 HitsProjection 1.2Model 65%
draftkings -200Market fair 62.4%Value +2.6 ptsModel EV -2.5%
L5 60%L10 60%L20 70%

Steven Kwan projects for 1.2 against a line of 0.5, using verified MLB Stats API matchup context where available plus conservative calibration from graded High Five picks. High Five estimates a 65% OVER probability.

MLB MONEYLINE MODEL

Model moneylines

Model mlb-v0.1-moneyline · SharpAPI
The moneyline model prices each game from regressed team-strength ratings and only plays sides where its price beats the no-vig market by at least 2 points. It does not yet adjust for the day's starting pitchers. No qualifying edge means no pick.
No MLB moneyline edges clear the model's minimum right now.
MODEL LAB

Proof before promotion

2751 graded picks
Record1502-1249
Hit rate54.6%
Profit-89.41u
ROI-3.2%
Brier score0.253
Average CLV-0.2%

Model versions

ModelSportGradedHitProfitROIBrierCLV
mlb-v0.3-matchupMLB70259.4%-47.73u-6.8%0.232-0.0%
nfl-v0.2-valueNFL65849.4%+3.81u0.6%0.272-0.3%
nfl-v0.4-context-learningNFL51548.5%-32.16u-6.2%0.275-0.2%
mlb-v0.4-context-learningMLB35458.2%-20.08u-5.7%0.2360.0%
mlb-v0.2-valueMLB34860.9%-25.89u-7.4%0.227-0.0%
nfl-v0.3-usage-matchupNFL15651.3%+28.25u18.1%0.282-0.4%
nfl-v0.1-touchdown-poissonNFL18Small sample — directional only66.7%+4.39u24.4%0.230-0.5%

By sport

SportModelGradedRecordHitProfitCLV
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchup702417-28559.4%-47.73u-0.0%
NFLnfl-v0.2-value658325-33349.4%+3.81u-0.3%
NFLnfl-v0.4-context-learning515250-26548.5%-32.16u-0.2%
MLBmlb-v0.4-context-learning354206-14858.2%-20.08u0.0%
MLBmlb-v0.2-value348212-13660.9%-25.89u-0.0%
NFLnfl-v0.3-usage-matchup15680-7651.3%+28.25u-0.4%
NFLnfl-v0.1-touchdown-poisson1812-666.7%+4.39u-0.5%

By market

MarketSportModelGradedHitProfitBrier
ReceptionsNFLnfl-v0.2-value50047.0%-54.73u0.280
HitsMLBmlb-v0.3-matchup42062.1%-19.98u0.235
ReceptionsNFLnfl-v0.4-context-learning39744.1%-71.28u0.286
HitsMLBmlb-v0.4-context-learning23464.5%-2.22u0.223
HitsMLBmlb-v0.2-value18659.1%-17.76u0.251
Total BasesMLBmlb-v0.3-matchup12147.9%-14.62u0.243
Pitcher StrikeoutsMLBmlb-v0.3-matchup11648.3%-12.81u0.270
Receiving YardsNFLnfl-v0.2-value11456.1%+54.07u0.241
ReceptionsNFLnfl-v0.3-usage-matchup11052.7%+1.86u0.275
Receiving YardsNFLnfl-v0.4-context-learning8859.1%+26.38u0.246
Total BasesMLBmlb-v0.2-value6851.5%-5.90u0.229
Pitcher StrikeoutsMLBmlb-v0.4-context-learning6746.3%-10.90u0.269
Total BasesMLBmlb-v0.4-context-learning5345.3%-6.96u0.255
Pitcher StrikeoutsMLBmlb-v0.2-value4951.0%-1.91u0.261
Home RunsMLBmlb-v0.3-matchup4393.0%-0.48u0.085
Home RunsMLBmlb-v0.2-value4393.0%-0.48u0.090
Receiving YardsNFLnfl-v0.3-usage-matchup3158.1%+33.90u0.248
Passing YardsNFLnfl-v0.2-value2356.5%+1.50u0.280
Passing YardsNFLnfl-v0.4-context-learning1580.0%+7.68u0.217
Rushing YardsNFLnfl-v0.2-value1560.0%+2.02u0.283

Grade and confidence

SportModelGradeBandGradedHitProfit
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchupA+75%+15079.3%+15.83u
NFLnfl-v0.4-context-learningC<55%13554.1%+5.37u
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchupC<55%12343.9%-25.11u
NFLnfl-v0.2-valueA+75%+12255.7%+4.94u
NFLnfl-v0.2-valueC<55%10644.3%-13.32u
NFLnfl-v0.2-valueB-55–59%10258.8%+47.85u
NFLnfl-v0.2-valueB+60–64%9745.4%-15.04u
MLBmlb-v0.4-context-learningC<55%9749.5%-11.39u
MLBmlb-v0.2-valueA+75%+9783.5%+9.71u
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchupB+60–64%8156.8%-7.60u
NFLnfl-v0.4-context-learningA+75%+7360.3%+6.70u
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchupA-65–69%6955.1%-9.09u
NFLnfl-v0.2-valueA-65–69%6656.1%+2.82u
NFLnfl-v0.4-context-learningB+60–64%6428.1%-29.49u
NFLnfl-v0.4-context-learningB-55–59%5846.6%-8.71u
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchupB-55–59%5461.1%+4.85u
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchupA+70–74%5366.0%-0.87u
MLBmlb-v0.2-valueC<55%5046.0%-7.98u
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchupB55–59%4452.3%-8.05u
MLBmlb-v0.2-valueB+60–64%4360.5%-1.68u

Sport-specific calibration

SportModelBandPicksPredictedActualBrier
MLBmlb-v0.2-value50-59%9754.5%49.5%0.254
MLBmlb-v0.2-value60-69%12164.5%52.9%0.264
MLBmlb-v0.2-value70-79%13076.4%76.9%0.173
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchup50-59%22254.3%49.5%0.250
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchup60-69%24364.7%53.9%0.260
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchup70-79%14274.4%70.4%0.206
MLBmlb-v0.3-matchup80-89%9580.0%80.0%0.160
MLBmlb-v0.4-context-learning50-59%15453.6%49.4%0.250
MLBmlb-v0.4-context-learning60-69%11764.3%59.8%0.241
MLBmlb-v0.4-context-learning70-79%8074.1%72.5%0.201
MLBmlb-v0.4-context-learning80-89%380.0%66.7%0.240
NFLnfl-v0.1-touchdown-poisson50-59%1152.9%72.7%0.224
NFLnfl-v0.1-touchdown-poisson60-69%362.7%33.3%0.313
NFLnfl-v0.1-touchdown-poisson70-79%477.0%75.0%0.183
NFLnfl-v0.2-value50-59%25054.9%50.8%0.249
NFLnfl-v0.2-value60-69%24464.0%45.1%0.282
NFLnfl-v0.2-value70-79%16475.2%53.7%0.293
NFLnfl-v0.3-usage-matchup50-59%6055.3%55.0%0.246
NFLnfl-v0.3-usage-matchup60-69%5964.0%55.9%0.252
NFLnfl-v0.3-usage-matchup70-79%3776.0%37.8%0.388
NFLnfl-v0.4-context-learning50-59%22253.6%50.9%0.253
NFLnfl-v0.4-context-learning60-69%16164.0%39.8%0.294
NFLnfl-v0.4-context-learning70-79%13275.5%55.3%0.288

Recent High Five results

SportPlayerMarketPickModelResultUnits
MLBChandler SimpsonHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningpending—
MLBJunior CamineroHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningpending—
MLBParker MessickPitcher OutsOVER 15.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningpending—
MLBJo AdellHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningpending—
MLBBrayan RocchioHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningpending—
NFLDalton SchultzReceiving YardsOVER 30.500nfl-v0.4-context-learningwin+0.87u
MLBChase DeLauterHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningpending—
MLBChandler SimpsonHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningpending—
MLBJunior CamineroRBIsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningpending—
MLBBrayan RocchioHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningpending—
MLBJo AdellHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningpending—
NFLParker WashingtonReceiving YardsOVER 63.500nfl-v0.4-context-learningwin+0.88u
MLBChase DeLauterRunsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningfailed—
MLBJose RamirezRunsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningfailed—
MLBJunior CamineroRBIsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningfailed—
MLBJo AdellHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningfailed—
MLBBrayan RocchioHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningfailed—
NFLEmanuel WilsonReceiving YardsOVER 9.500nfl-v0.4-context-learningloss-1.00u
NFLGeorge HolaniReceiving YardsOVER 10.500nfl-v0.4-context-learningloss-1.00u
NFLCourtland SuttonReceiving YardsUNDER 31.500nfl-v0.4-context-learningwin+0.92u
NFLBo NixPassing YardsUNDER 198.500nfl-v0.4-context-learningwin+0.89u
NFLJaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving YardsOVER 92.500nfl-v0.4-context-learningwin+0.88u
MLBAndy PagesRBIsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningfailed—
MLBJake BauersRunsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningfailed—
MLBJackson ChourioRunsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningfailed—
MLBWilliam ContrerasHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningfailed—
MLBBrice TurangHitsOVER 0.500mlb-v0.4-context-learningfailed—
NFLCourtland SuttonReceiving YardsUNDER 32.500nfl-v0.4-context-learningwin+0.88u
NFLRJ HarveyReceiving YardsOVER 21.500nfl-v0.4-context-learningwin+0.93u
NFLBo NixPassing YardsUNDER 199.500nfl-v0.4-context-learningwin+0.89u